The Rise and Flatline of Trumpism
This article is brought to you by Glitterpill and summarises our recent research based on the threat of violence from the last of the Trump supporters at his indictment on June 13th 2023.
At Glitterpill, we continuously monitor, and analyze threats and risks to support our clients in making moves to prevent harm. It is important to recognize that there are high-risk and low-risk situations. This week we were monitoring the threat of a second insurrection in Miami tied to the court appearance of President Trump in connection with federal charges against him over classified documents. In spite of this threat of a second insurrection appearing across online communities we monitor, no significant leaders of the movements showed up in Miami for Trump’s arraignment on Tuesday. There was no violence, low turnout, and all-in-all, Trump supporters were left looking like they are on their last legs.
It is well known among researchers that, “F*ck around and find out!” has been a Proud Boy proverb for years. It’s tough guy talk. It roughly translates to, “if you’d like to know how badly we can hurt you, give us a reason and you’ll find out.” The reason they could say things like this without fear of legal consequences is because of the incessant, preferential treatment by factions of law enforcement, in addition to multiple instances of collusion. In the fall of 2020, the Proud Boys beat and stabbed people on the streets of the US Capital and certain members of the police, despite their duty, didn’t intervene in any meaningful way. Some Portland officers’ perception of mutual combat, something not codified in law, exacerbated the city’s descent into violence and made Portland an extremist fight club and test case for national trends. The lack of dedication by the Portland Police Bureau, a combination of biased officers and consistent violence, allowed the Proud Boys to engage in political violence. A glaring issue to highlight is that members of the force coordinated with them directly. Our research displays the strategy was intentional and announced in advance.
Life for the Proud Boys is different to what most of us know and the standards we live by. Every month they would go out with their drinking/cocaine buddies and violently beat people up. They did this for years without meaningful repercussions. In many cases, the police watched whilst they did it. What kind of effect would this have on someone like them? They felt powerful, untouchable even. This lifestyle encouraged them to see how far they could go, how hard they could push. After some time their vicious assaults, on vulnerable people half their size, escalated. Soon they aimed higher, at the halls of power. After President Trump lost to President Biden, the Proud Boys decided to follow their own mantra and “find out” a few times in DC. This led them to expand and find out that Portland wasn’t their only safe haven. After “f*cking around and finding out” by brutalizing literally anybody they wanted, they discovered that certain parts of Washington DC are not so different from Portland. One month later they focused their sights on the Capitol building on January 6th 2021. Fortunately, they failed in their attempts, but it can not be understated how close they were.
“What has replaced a consequence-free gladiator’s arena in the streets is a climate of fear and paranoia.”
What followed the events of January 6th 2021 was, for the first time for the Proud Boys, a long series of consequences. Enrique Tarrio, Ethan Nordean, Joe Biggs and hundreds of others have, rightfully, all been indicted for their crimes at the US Capitol. These prosecutions have resulted in a cultural shift on the far right. The violence has once again been contained. What has replaced a consequence-free gladiator’s arena in the streets is a climate of fear and paranoia. Our research shows that they see a federal agent lurking behind every tree now. Every call to action is looked upon with suspicion. “Is this a honeypot?”. January 6th, 2021, changed many things. The whole affair is seen as an embarrassing mistake that set their progress back by years. It was too high profile and lost mainstream support. After President Trump’s indictment this past weekend it is evident that they’re still worried about repeating that same mistake.
President Trump was federally indicted this month. A call to action went out to surround the Miami courthouse where he was being arraigned on June 13th, 2023. There was already some buzz in the press about an explosion of pent up anger on the streets of Miami. There was plenty of “fedposting”, saber-rattling and even some Congressmen using dog whistles involving military jargon on Twitter. There were lots of reasons to anticipate things would turn ugly this past Tuesday. I mean why not? If there were ever a time to rally the troops for one final putsch against the powers that be this would be it. In spite of people’s fears, nothing happened and maybe 300 people showed up. These are not Capitol Riot numbers. They aren’t even Trump rally numbers. It was a flop but it leads to the question, why did nothing happen?
Maybe they didn’t want to find out for a second time, as it can even be seen by the Proud Boys’ most fervent supporters that it did not go well on January 6th, 2021. Maybe the demoralized bunch has grown tired of “f*cking around” and doesn’t see the risks as commensurate with the rewards.
Glitterpill LLC
